Climate change is no longer only an environmental issue. For producers, importers, distributors and food companies, it has become a strategic variable affecting raw material availability, crop quality, prices and supply continuity.
According to the World Meteorological Organization, the years from 2015 to 2025 were the eleven warmest on record. In 2025, the global average temperature was approximately 1.43°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.
Against this background, building resilient, flexible and diversified agri-food supply chains is essential for maintaining operational stability and long-term competitiveness.
Climate as a new supply-chain variable
Prolonged droughts, heatwaves, irregular rainfall, floods and shifting seasons can reduce agricultural yields and alter normal harvesting schedules.
The impact varies depending on the crop, production area and availability of water. However, the consequences can quickly spread through the entire supply chain.
A lower-than-expected harvest in an important producing country may result in:
- reduced export availability;
- increased competition among buyers;
- price volatility;
- delivery delays;
- greater pressure on alternative markets.
High temperatures are a particularly significant risk. FAO reports that, for many major agricultural crops, yields begin to decline when temperatures exceed critical thresholds, often around 30°C and lower for certain crops.
Effects on raw-material quality
Climate conditions affect not only the quantity produced, but also the qualitative characteristics of the harvest.
Heat stress, water shortages and excessive rainfall may influence:
- product size and uniformity;
- colour and appearance;
- moisture levels;
- protein content;
- maturity;
- shelf life;
- exposure to pests, moulds and contamination.
In the international trade of pulses, grains, rice, dried fruits, nuts and other agricultural products, these variations can make it more difficult to meet technical specifications, quality standards and contractual requirements.
Documentary checks, quality inspections and careful lot selection are therefore becoming increasingly important.
Prices and availability in a more volatile market
When climatic conditions affect production, the consequences may be reflected in raw-material prices.
Droughts and floods can reduce supply, while extreme events may damage infrastructure, slow down transportation or temporarily disrupt trade routes.
The final market effect also depends on stock levels, international demand, energy prices, trade policies, alternative origins and logistical conditions.
Buyers, importers and distributors should therefore assess more than the current purchasing price. Other relevant factors include:
- reliability of the origin;
- supplier stability;
- medium-term availability;
- flexibility in formats and volumes;
- compatible alternatives;
- delivery times and transport routes.
Diversifying origins and suppliers
A supply chain that depends heavily on one geographical area is particularly vulnerable to local climatic events.
Diversification distributes risk across different producing countries, suppliers and logistics corridors.
This does not mean automatically replacing one origin with another. It means developing a qualified portfolio of alternatives before a disruption occurs.
Each origin may offer different quality characteristics, harvesting calendars, technical specifications, availability and commercial conditions.
Recent FAO guidance on agri-food supply-chain resilience highlights the importance of diversifying suppliers, contractual arrangements and logistics corridors to manage environmental, economic and geopolitical risks.
The value of information and planning
In an increasingly uncertain environment, access to accurate and updated information is a competitive advantage.
Monitoring agricultural seasons, climate forecasts, crop development and conditions in the main sourcing markets can help identify potential risks before they become supply disruptions.
Earlier planning also enables companies to:
- assess alternative origins;
- schedule purchases and deliveries;
- manage inventory more effectively;
- define realistic specifications;
- reduce urgent spot purchases;
- improve supply continuity.
Building more resilient supply chains
Climate change is making agricultural markets more complex, while also increasing the value of a well-organised supply chain.
Flexibility, traceability, diversification and quality control are essential in a market where raw-material availability, characteristics and prices can change rapidly.
SAG Pulses BV operates in the international trade of agricultural and food products, supporting B2B customers in selecting raw materials and identifying sourcing solutions consistent with their requirements.
In an increasingly unpredictable market, the ability to evaluate different origins, formats and logistics solutions can contribute to more reliable supplies and stronger long-term business relationships.
