Two markets moving in opposite directions
Australia’s new crop provides a clear example of how strongly supply dynamics can differ within the same commodity sector.
According to the latest Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences forecasts, Australian chickpea production is expected to fall by 52% in 2026/27, to just over 1 million tonnes.
Over the same season, lentil production is forecast to rise by 5% to a record 2.3 million tonnes, more than twice the ten-year average.
Two pulses, therefore, but two very different supply outlooks.
Chickpeas: lower area and weaker yield prospects
The expected decline in Australian chickpea output is primarily the result of significantly reduced planted area combined with weaker yield prospects in the country’s main producing regions.
Conditions have been particularly challenging across Queensland and northern New South Wales, where limited stored soil moisture and seasonal conditions influenced planting decisions.
In New South Wales, for example, chickpea area is estimated to have fallen by almost 47%, while production is forecast to decline by approximately 62% year on year.
For international markets, a contraction of this magnitude implies lower potential availability from an important exporting origin.
However, lower production does not automatically mean an immediate rise in prices.
Carry-in stocks, crop quality, exporter selling programmes and global demand will ultimately determine how tight physical availability becomes.
Lentils heading towards another record
The lentil market presents an almost opposite picture.
ABARES forecasts Australian lentil production at approximately 2.3 million tonnes, a new record and around 5% above the already strong previous crop.
The increase is supported by continued expansion in planted area and favourable growing conditions across the key producing regions of South Australia and Victoria.
For buyers, abundant supply may increase purchasing opportunities, but it does not remove the need to distinguish between total production and product that actually meets specific commercial requirements.
Quality, size, colour, cleaning standards, packaging options and delivery windows continue to determine the true value of available cargo.
There is no single “pulse market”
The Australian example illustrates an important principle for B2B procurement.
The pulse market cannot be analysed as one homogeneous category.
Production dynamics can vary significantly even between commodities grown in the same country during the same season.
In 2026/27 the market could therefore face, at the same time:
- greater lentil availability;
- tighter chickpea availability;
- different pricing pressures;
- changing premiums between origins;
- different exporter selling strategies.
For buyers, relying only on a general view of the pulse sector may therefore hide important signals.
From production volume to tradable availability
Another key distinction is between production volume and commercial availability.
A large national crop does not necessarily mean that all of that volume will immediately reach international markets.
Some production may be consumed domestically, some may already be committed under forward contracts and some may not meet specific quality requirements.
Likewise, a smaller harvest does not necessarily create an immediate shortage when significant carry-in stocks remain available from the previous season.
A robust sourcing strategy therefore needs to consider several variables simultaneously:
production + stocks + quality + demand + logistics + timing.
What this means for B2B buyers
For international buyers, the divergence between chickpeas and lentils suggests different procurement approaches.
In chickpeas, it may be advisable to verify physical availability earlier, compare alternative origins and closely monitor forward offers.
In lentils, higher Australian production may increase competition between suppliers and create attractive buying opportunities, particularly when multiple exporters begin marketing new-crop material at the same time.
In both cases, however, price should be evaluated together with logistics costs, required specifications and supply-chain reliability.
Australia’s 2026/27 season clearly demonstrates how two commodities within the same sector can follow completely different trajectories.
Chickpeas: supply contracting sharply.
Lentils: production moving towards another record.
For B2B buyers, the implication is straightforward: there is no single procurement strategy that works across all pulses.
Assessing each commodity, origin and delivery window individually provides a clearer view of both risk and opportunity.
In an increasingly volatile international market, knowing how much has been produced is only the starting point.
The more important question is: how much product will actually be available, at what quality, at what time and at what final cost?
