A market where price tells only part of the story
International pulse prices have always been influenced by production, stocks, global demand and trade flows.
In 2026, however, an additional layer of complexity has become increasingly important.
Geopolitical tensions, energy costs, weather conditions and disruptions along some of the world’s most important trade routes are changing the way agricultural commodities are sourced and evaluated.
According to FAO, the Food Price Index averaged 133.3 points in August 2026, increasing 1.9% from July and 2.5% compared with the previous year. Adverse weather, conflict in the Middle East and Black Sea trade logistics were among the factors contributing to higher quotations across major food commodities.
This does not mean that every agricultural commodity is moving in the same direction.
It means that a greater risk premium is returning to international food markets.
For pulse buyers, looking only at the FOB price is therefore becoming increasingly insufficient.
Black Sea, Red Sea and Hormuz: three critical trade chokepoints
In September 2026, the World Food Programme highlighted an exceptional situation: conflict is placing pressure on the Black Sea, Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz at the same time.
All three are strategically important to global food systems.
The Black Sea is one of the world’s most important agricultural export corridors. The Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb connect Asian and European trade through the Suez Canal, while the Strait of Hormuz plays a crucial role in global energy and fertilizer flows.
Disruptions do not affect only commodities originating directly from these regions.
They can increase transit times, insurance costs, bunker fuel expenses and, in some circumstances, force vessels and traders to consider alternative routes.
Energy costs eventually become food costs
Brent crude moved above USD 100 per barrel again in September as Middle East tensions continued to affect global energy markets. On September 15, Reuters reported Brent at around USD 105 per barrel following renewed attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure.
For agricultural supply chains, the connection is significant.
Diesel is required for farming and inland transportation. Marine fuel affects ocean freight, while energy and natural gas are closely connected to fertilizer production and costs.
As a result, even when an agricultural commodity remains competitively priced at origin, the landed cost faced by the buyer may move in a different direction.
What is happening in pulse markets?
Lentils provide a useful example of why the current market cannot be reduced to a simple “prices are rising” narrative.
Canada remains one of the world’s key pulse suppliers. During the 2025/26 crop year, average Canadian lentil prices fell by 37%, to approximately CAD 500 per tonne, largely because of ample supply and record carry-out stocks.
For 2026/27, however, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada expects Canadian lentil production to fall by 26% to around 2.5 million tonnes, with average prices forecast to rise from the previous crop year.
Dry peas show another changing supply picture. After average prices fell 26% in 2025/26, Canadian production for 2026/27 is forecast to decline by 20% to approximately 3.15 million tonnes.
Chickpeas illustrate the opposite side of the equation. Although Canadian production is forecast to decline, large carry-in inventories continue to weigh on the market and average prices are expected to remain under pressure.
The message for buyers is straightforward:
there is no single pulse-market direction.
Production, carry-over stocks, international demand, quality and trade conditions must be analysed commodity by commodity and origin by origin.
Quality may become as important as quantity
Weather adds another layer of uncertainty.
As of September 15, persistent rainfall across Western Canada was significantly delaying harvest progress.
In Saskatchewan, only around 27% of crops had been harvested by September 7, compared with a five-year average of 58%.
Concerns are not limited to crop volumes. Extended exposure to wet conditions can also affect quality across cereals and pulse crops, potentially reducing the availability of top grades even when total production remains substantial.
For international buyers, this distinction matters.
A market may have sufficient overall stocks while offering considerably tighter availability for a specific grade, size, colour or specification.
FOB price and landed cost are not the same thing
This is perhaps the most important distinction in the current market.
A competitive FOB price does not necessarily mean a competitive procurement decision.
The actual cost of a shipment must also consider:
- ocean freight and bunker fuel;
- insurance;
- potential route diversions;
- port and handling costs;
- transit times;
- currency exposure;
- availability of the required quality;
- payment conditions;
- supplier reliability.
Two offers carrying exactly the same origin price per tonne can therefore result in very different delivered costs and risk profiles.
This is why landed cost, together with security of supply, is becoming increasingly important in procurement decisions.
Diversification is becoming a risk-management strategy
In a more volatile trading environment, diversification is not simply about finding the lowest price in different countries.
It means being able to evaluate alternative origins, harvest windows, crop availability, quality specifications and logistics options.
For importers, distributors and food manufacturers, a diversified supply network provides more flexibility when a particular origin faces weather, logistics or geopolitical problems.
Supply-chain resilience is therefore becoming part of the purchasing strategy itself.
Looking beyond the commodity price
The events of 2026 are reinforcing an important lesson for the global food industry: the price of a commodity cannot be separated from the system required to move that commodity from origin to destination.
Production and demand will naturally remain the key fundamentals shaping international pulse markets.
But freight, energy, quality, geopolitics, trade-route availability and supply-chain reliability are becoming increasingly relevant.
For buyers, the key question is therefore no longer simply:
“What is the price per tonne?”
Increasingly, it is:
“What is the real cost, and the real risk of bringing this product to destination?”
